Hi Jake
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
2012 Election Results: Obama won.
2012 Election Results: Obama won.
6 Nov 2012, 11:20PM
Folks,
Obama & Democrats won.
Romney & Republicans lost.
How did America do?
Karl Rove was wrong.
Dick Morris was wrong.
Rasmussen was wrong.
Gallup was wrong.
I was wrong.
By keeping Republicans in charge of the US House of Representatives, the American public was saying they want to balance the budget.
By keeping Democrats in charge of the US Senate, the American public was saying they want to keep Obamacare.
Because of Obamacare, more companies will drop folks from corporate health insurance.
Because of Obamacare, more companies will not hire.
I am going to spend more time watching UFO videos on YouTube.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
6 Nov 2012, 11:20PM
Folks,
Obama & Democrats won.
Romney & Republicans lost.
How did America do?
Karl Rove was wrong.
Dick Morris was wrong.
Rasmussen was wrong.
Gallup was wrong.
I was wrong.
By keeping Republicans in charge of the US House of Representatives, the American public was saying they want to balance the budget.
By keeping Democrats in charge of the US Senate, the American public was saying they want to keep Obamacare.
Because of Obamacare, more companies will drop folks from corporate health insurance.
Because of Obamacare, more companies will not hire.
I am going to spend more time watching UFO videos on YouTube.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
Friday, October 19, 2012
Few Obama Signs
19 October 2012
According to a Google search, Pinellas County, Florida has 900,000 residents.
I remember that leading up to the 2008 election, there were many Obama signs.
My wife and I are retired, so we pass some of our free time just driving around and sightseeing. We intentionally drive all the streets in neighborhoods looking for Obama signs. I have seen and counted 11 Obama signs.
Respecfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
19 October 2012
According to a Google search, Pinellas County, Florida has 900,000 residents.
I remember that leading up to the 2008 election, there were many Obama signs.
My wife and I are retired, so we pass some of our free time just driving around and sightseeing. We intentionally drive all the streets in neighborhoods looking for Obama signs. I have seen and counted 11 Obama signs.
Respecfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
Thursday, May 31, 2012
RCP Poll Averaging
31 May 2012
Adam Smith, Tampa Bay Times,
In the interest of fairness, I am a life-long Republican, Registered, and Likely Voter.
Thought I’d put in my 2 cents concerning your article and RCP poll averages.
In case this doesn’t display correctly, this opinion is written in Google documents.
First, the polls from RCP, (if need be, you can look directly at RCP Polls):
It would be nice if RCP had a legend, but they don’t. I have suggested same to RCP. So,...
Legend: A = Adult, RV = Registered Voter, LV = Likely Voter.
The importance of a legend is that A does not tell you much. Is A registered? Does A vote?
RV says the person is registered to vote, but do they actually vote? RV is nice, but...?
LV says the person is registered to vote, and claims to be an active voter. LV is best.
Validity Criteria:
1. From my science, engineering, and medical education, I always learned that the datum farthest from the straight line approximation should be discarded as probably unreliable.
2. Professional polling companies probably do a more accurate poll than non-professional pollers, such as news channels, universities, and the like.
3. Big samples are better than small samples, and perhaps round-number samples are more accurate than non-round-number samples.
Looking at the same data and using these criteria, I come to a different conclusion than you. This is not to say for certain that you are wrong, but maybe just not as correct as you would like to be.
Analysis using Validity Criteria:
First, poll number 4 does not say how many were in the sample. Is it 10 or 1,000? Poll number 4 should be discarded as incomplete data, as indicated by an asterisk after name.
Second, poll number 5 is the outlier and, as such, (even though I am a Republican and watch FOX) by criteria #1 must be discarded, as indicated by an asterisk.
Third, polls number 3, 4, 5, and 6 were all conducted by news services (criteria #2), have smaller samples that are not round-numbers (criteria #3), and should all be discarded, as indicated by an asterisk.
This leaves polls 1, 2, and 7 giving Romney a slight (less than 1) lead, unless weighting (number of sample times result) is used.
Note also that although the poll #2 (Gallup) sample is large, it is RV and therefore less reliable, while polls #1 (Rasmussen) and #7 (Mason-Dixon) are both n=1,000 and LV.
I therefore conclude that, at this early time in the campaign, Romney has a slight, but real, lead over Obama.
One more personal note: During the last election cycle of 2010, I followed polling closely. I noticed that at some point, there simply were no more polls. I finally realized that “the Left” realized that “the Left” was going to lose badly in the upcoming election and that there was no use in paying good money to have a poll done to confirm “the Left’s” worst fears.
I’m 65yo. As a kid, I watched Perry Mason on TV. After all the detective work was done, the show always ended with the bad guy, who would lose, being sworn in to testify with these words: “Do you promise to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, so help you God.”
In 2008, American journalists became Journ”O”lists, by promising not to say anything bad about Obama. In effect, American journalists promised to NOT tell “the whole truth”. You can deceive yourself if you want, but it is immoral to deceive those readers who rely on you.
Permit me one final observation. At this time, my personal guess for the 2012 Electoral College Vote Projection is Democrats 228, Republicans 310.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
31 May 2012
Adam Smith, Tampa Bay Times,
In the interest of fairness, I am a life-long Republican, Registered, and Likely Voter.
Thought I’d put in my 2 cents concerning your article and RCP poll averages.
In case this doesn’t display correctly, this opinion is written in Google documents.
First, the polls from RCP, (if need be, you can look directly at RCP Polls):
| # | Poll | Date | Sample | Obama | Romney | Spread |
| RCP Average | 5/30 | -- | 45.9 | 43.6 | O +2.3 | |
| 1 | Rasmussen Tracking | 5/30 | 1050 LV | 45 | 46 | R +1 |
| 2 | Gallup Tracking | 5/30 | 3050 RV | 47 | 44 | O +3 |
| 3 | ABC News/ WaPo * | 5/20 | 874 RV | 49 | 46 | O +3 |
| 4 | NBC News/WSJ * | 5/20 | RV | 47 | 43 | O +4 |
| 5 | FOX News * | 5/15 | 913 RV | 46 | 39 | O +7 |
| 6 | IBD/CSM/TIPP * | 5/16 | 778 RV | 43 | 40 | O +3 |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon | 5/14 | 1000 LV | 44 | 47 | R +3 |
It would be nice if RCP had a legend, but they don’t. I have suggested same to RCP. So,...
Legend: A = Adult, RV = Registered Voter, LV = Likely Voter.
The importance of a legend is that A does not tell you much. Is A registered? Does A vote?
RV says the person is registered to vote, but do they actually vote? RV is nice, but...?
LV says the person is registered to vote, and claims to be an active voter. LV is best.
Validity Criteria:
1. From my science, engineering, and medical education, I always learned that the datum farthest from the straight line approximation should be discarded as probably unreliable.
2. Professional polling companies probably do a more accurate poll than non-professional pollers, such as news channels, universities, and the like.
3. Big samples are better than small samples, and perhaps round-number samples are more accurate than non-round-number samples.
Looking at the same data and using these criteria, I come to a different conclusion than you. This is not to say for certain that you are wrong, but maybe just not as correct as you would like to be.
Analysis using Validity Criteria:
First, poll number 4 does not say how many were in the sample. Is it 10 or 1,000? Poll number 4 should be discarded as incomplete data, as indicated by an asterisk after name.
Second, poll number 5 is the outlier and, as such, (even though I am a Republican and watch FOX) by criteria #1 must be discarded, as indicated by an asterisk.
Third, polls number 3, 4, 5, and 6 were all conducted by news services (criteria #2), have smaller samples that are not round-numbers (criteria #3), and should all be discarded, as indicated by an asterisk.
This leaves polls 1, 2, and 7 giving Romney a slight (less than 1) lead, unless weighting (number of sample times result) is used.
Note also that although the poll #2 (Gallup) sample is large, it is RV and therefore less reliable, while polls #1 (Rasmussen) and #7 (Mason-Dixon) are both n=1,000 and LV.
I therefore conclude that, at this early time in the campaign, Romney has a slight, but real, lead over Obama.
One more personal note: During the last election cycle of 2010, I followed polling closely. I noticed that at some point, there simply were no more polls. I finally realized that “the Left” realized that “the Left” was going to lose badly in the upcoming election and that there was no use in paying good money to have a poll done to confirm “the Left’s” worst fears.
I’m 65yo. As a kid, I watched Perry Mason on TV. After all the detective work was done, the show always ended with the bad guy, who would lose, being sworn in to testify with these words: “Do you promise to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, so help you God.”
In 2008, American journalists became Journ”O”lists, by promising not to say anything bad about Obama. In effect, American journalists promised to NOT tell “the whole truth”. You can deceive yourself if you want, but it is immoral to deceive those readers who rely on you.
Permit me one final observation. At this time, my personal guess for the 2012 Electoral College Vote Projection is Democrats 228, Republicans 310.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
Monday, May 28, 2012
Observe Memorial Day
Observe Memorial Day
28 May 2012
Folks,
Let all Americans remember the sacrifices made by American service men and women to protect America and the whole world.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
28 May 2012
Folks,
Let all Americans remember the sacrifices made by American service men and women to protect America and the whole world.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Strange Goings-On
Strange Goings-On
21 April 2012
Folks,
There seem to be some strange goings-on recently. To wit:
FOX cancels Glen Beck program.
Israel prepares to attack Iran.
Occupy Wall Street occurs.
Jan 2012, Obama signs NDAA, which allows indefinite detention, forced labor.
Andrew Breitbart dies of a heart attack at 43.
FOX cancels Judge Andrew Napolitano’s “Freedom Watch” program.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
21 April 2012
Folks,
There seem to be some strange goings-on recently. To wit:
FOX cancels Glen Beck program.
Israel prepares to attack Iran.
Occupy Wall Street occurs.
Jan 2012, Obama signs NDAA, which allows indefinite detention, forced labor.
Andrew Breitbart dies of a heart attack at 43.
FOX cancels Judge Andrew Napolitano’s “Freedom Watch” program.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Andrew Breitbart RIP
Andrew Breitbart RIP
14 April 2012
Folks,
Andrew Breitbart RIP. 43 years old.
Breitbart was and is a hero of the conservative movement.
Breitbart stated he would vet (make a careful and critical examination of) Obama and now Breitbart is dead at 43.
The Right must be vigilant. The Right and The Center must legally unelect Obama.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
14 April 2012
Folks,
Andrew Breitbart RIP. 43 years old.
Breitbart was and is a hero of the conservative movement.
Breitbart stated he would vet (make a careful and critical examination of) Obama and now Breitbart is dead at 43.
The Right must be vigilant. The Right and The Center must legally unelect Obama.
Respectfully,
Tom Johnson
http://opinionscribe.blogspot.com
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